A brief analysis of the import and export situatio

2022-09-23
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A brief analysis of the import and export situation of national automobile commodities in 2015

in 2015, the import of automobile commodities ended the rapid growth of the previous year and showed a significant decline. The cumulative import amount was US $77.326 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.58%. Judging from the changes in the amount of automobile imports throughout the year, the year-on-year decline in imports in each month reached double digits, of which the decline was more obvious in February, may, August and October. In 2015, China's macro-economic growth slowed down, and the domestic effective demand was insufficient. The import of automobile commodities fell year-on-year for the first time since 2006, and the import of finished automobiles fell more significantly; In terms of exports, due to the expected slowdown in international economic growth, the political situation in some regions has intensified, which has also greatly affected the growth of automobile exports. According to the automobile commodity import and export data of the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Automobile Industry Association, the total import and export of automobile commodities in 2015 was US $157.372 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.96%. Specifically, the import and export of automobile commodities in 2015 showed the following characteristics:

I. Analysis of automobile commodity import

1. The import amount of automobile commodities fell by more than 20% year-on-year, and the leading commodities fell rapidly

in 2015, the import of automobile commodities ended the rapid growth of the previous year, showing a significant decline. The cumulative import amount was US $77.326 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.58%. Judging from the changes in the amount of automobile imports throughout the year, the year-on-year decline in imports in each month reached double digits, of which the decline was more obvious in February, may, August and October

among the seven categories of automobile imports, only motorcycle imports increased rapidly, and the cumulative import amount exceeded US $100million again after the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. The other six categories of automobile commodities showed a significant decline, of which the decline of complete vehicles was faster

from the perspective of automobile commodity imports in the past decade, the total import volume exceeded US $20billion for the first time in 2006, and nearly US $100 billion in 2014, a record high. Despite the decline in 2015, the average annual growth rate of imported commodities over the past decade has reached 15.6. I fully agree with this 6%, showing a rapid growth trend on the whole

see Figure 1-3 for details

Figure 1 monthly import amount and year-on-year growth of automobile commodities in 2015

Figure 2 proportion of import amount of seven categories of automobile commodities in 2015

Figure 3 import amount and year-on-year growth of automobile commodities in 2015

2. The import of finished automobiles decreased significantly compared with the previous year, and the import volume of the top ten countries continued to account for the largest proportion

in 2015, affected by the inventory pressure of the previous year and the decline in domestic demand, The import of finished automobiles decreased significantly year on year. A total of 1101900 vehicles were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 22.73%; The import amount was US $4588 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.98%. From the performance of automobile imports in each month, the year-on-year decline in import volume in January and September was slightly lower, and the decline in other months was more than 10%, of which the decline in February, may and August was more than 30%

in 2015, among the main import varieties of automobiles, the import varieties of the three major categories of automobiles showed a significant decline year-on-year. Among them, 471800 off-road vehicles were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 19.90%. Among the sub varieties of off-road vehicles, the growth rate of 1.0L < displacement 1.5L series gasoline vehicles and 2.5L < displacement 3.0L series diesel off-road vehicles is slightly lower, and other off-road vehicle varieties of all series are declining. The import of cars was 352500, a year-on-year decrease of 24.95%. Among the main imported varieties of cars, the import volume of 1.0L < 1.5L series gasoline vehicles increased rapidly, while that of other series gasoline vehicles decreased. The import of small passenger cars was 264300, a year-on-year decrease of 23.20%. Among the subdivisions of small passenger cars, the varieties of small displacement gasoline vehicles with a capacity of 1.5 liters or less increased rapidly, and the varieties of gasoline vehicles with a capacity of more than 2.0 liters decreased rapidly. In 2015, a total of 1088600 vehicles of the above three categories were imported, accounting for 98.79% of the total automobile imports

in 2015, the top ten countries in terms of automobile imports were Japan, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Mexico, Slovakia, Hungary, Portugal and France, importing 263100, 260600, 218800, 96800, 55200, 50700, 27000, 19300, 17000 and 15400 vehicles respectively. Compared with the previous year, the import volume of Hungary increased slightly, while that of other countries decreased, with the decline of Britain, South Korea, Mexico and Slovakia being more obvious. In 2015, China imported 1023900 vehicles from the above ten countries, accounting for 92.92% of the total automobile imports

judging from the import of finished vehicles in the past decade, the import volume was only about 200000 vehicles in 2006, exceeding one million for the first time in 2011, and the scale of finished vehicles remained one million in the next five years, with an average annual growth rate of 19.13% in the past ten years, higher than the growth rate of the industry

see Figure 4-7 for details

Figure 4 monthly automobile import volume and year-on-year growth changes in 2015

Figure 5 composition of import volume of main varieties of complete vehicles in 2015

Figure 6 partial displacement import of three categories of passenger vehicles in 2015

figure 7 total automobile import volume and year-on-year growth changes

3. The import amount of automobile parts and components decreased to a certain extent, and the engine decline was the highest

in 2015, the import of automobile parts and components also ended the growth of the previous year, Showed a certain decline. The cumulative import amount was US $32.065 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.61%. Among the main varieties of auto parts, compared with the same period last year, the varieties of four major categories of parts showed a decline. Among them, the import of engines was 681300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.94%, an increase of 15 percentage points over the previous year, and the import amount was US $1.862 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.13%, a decrease of 11.66 percentage points over the previous year. Among the main engine varieties, the import volume and amount of six categories of varieties showed different declines, among which 663200 gasoline engines with 1.0L < 3.0L displacement, which accounted for the largest proportion, were imported, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.29%, accounting for 97.34% of the total engine import; The import amount was US $1.695 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.13%, accounting for 91.03% of the total engine imports

the import amount of auto parts, accessories and body was US $26.792 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.97%. Among the seven major sub categories counted by the China Automobile Association, the import amount of electronic fuel injection devices increased rapidly, while the other six categories showed a certain decline, of which the gearbox with the largest proportion decreased the most

the import amount of automobile and motorcycle tires was 588million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, of which the decline of automobile inner tubes was slightly lower, and the decline of other varieties was more obvious

the import amount of other automobile related goods was 2.823 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%

judging from the changes in the import amount of parts and components in the past decade, it maintained a rapid growth in, with an average annual growth rate of more than 18%. It decreased slightly in 2012, showed a restorative growth in, and increased in 2015. In general, the average annual growth rate in the past ten years is lower than that of the whole vehicle

see Figure 8 for details

figure 8 import amount of auto parts and year-on-year growth changes

4. The main import source countries of Auto goods still maintain a high share, and the proportion of the import amount of the top ten countries remains more than 90%

in 2015, according to customs statistics, the top 50 countries (including regions) with the import amount of Auto goods imported US $77.303 billion, accounting for 99.97% of the total import of Auto goods. Among them, the top ten countries (regions) in terms of import value are Germany, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Mexico, Slovakia, Hungary, France and Sweden, with imports of US $22.375 billion, US $14.271 billion, US $13.841 billion, US $6.879 billion, US $5.970 billion, US $2.018 billion, US $1.721 billion, US $1.156 billion, US $933 million and US $912 million respectively. Compared with the previous year, the import amount of Sweden increased rapidly, while that of other countries decreased to a certain extent, especially Slovakia and the United Kingdom. In 2015, the cumulative import amount of the above ten countries was US $7076 billion, accounting for 90.62% of the total import volume of automobile commodities

see Figure 9 for details

Figure 9 proportion of import amount of the top ten import source countries in 2015

II. Analysis of automobile commodity export

1. The export amount of automobile commodities decreased slightly, with a surplus of more than 2billion dollars

in 2015, the automobile export situation is still relatively severe. From the perspective of the international situation, the world economic recovery is slowing down, the growth rate of developed countries is not as strong as expected, the performance of Europe is more sluggish, the growth rate of emerging markets and developing countries is also slowing down, the political tension in some regions has intensified, and the overall weak demand in the international market has a great impact on China's exports. On the other hand, the comprehensive cost of foreign trade of domestic export enterprises remains high, and the traditional competitive advantage continues to weaken. Affected by this, the export of automobile commodities in 2015 showed a certain decline, with a cumulative export amount of US $8046 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.06%. It is worth mentioning that due to the larger decline in imports in the same period, the overall export deficit since 2010 ended, and there was a surplus again. In 2015, the foreign trade surplus of China's automobile exports was $2.72 billion, which was still lower than the level before 2009

from the perspective of the year-on-year growth of the monthly export amount of automobile commodities, it showed a rapid growth in February, a slightly lower growth rate in June, and a decline in other months. Although countries successively issued a series of preferential policies to encourage exports in the fourth quarter, the decline in each month in the fourth quarter was still more than 10%, and the severe export situation has not been effectively alleviated

in addition, from the performance of automobile commodity exports in the past decade, the annual growth rate of export value exceeded that of its own contribution to the development of national scientific and technological innovation capacity by 20%. It fell rapidly in 2009, and showed significant growth again in, and the growth rate slowed down after 2012. The average annual growth rate in the past ten years was 12.32%, which was generally lower than that of imports in the same period

see Figure 10-12 for details

Figure 10 monthly export amount and year-on-year growth of automobile commodities in 2015

Figure 11 proportion of export amount of seven categories of automobile commodities in 2015

Figure 12 export amount and year-on-year growth of automobile commodities in 2015

2. The decline in the export volume of finished automobiles has expanded, and the export volume of the top ten countries accounted for more than 50%

in 2015, under the influence of many adverse factors, the export of finished automobiles was greatly impacted, Compared with the same period of last year, the export volume and amount both decreased, and the decrease in quantity was more obvious. In 2015, 755500 finished automobiles were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 20.25%, an increase of 20.17 percentage points over the previous year; The export value was US $12.437 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.92%, ending the growth of the previous year. The export unit price was 16500 US dollars, higher than 1900 US dollars in the previous year. From the perspective of the year-on-year growth trend of monthly automobile exports, only February showed rapid growth, and other months showed a significant decline, of which the year-on-year decline in each month after September exceeded 25%

among the main varieties of automobile exports, compared with the previous year, the decline of cars has expanded, and the growth of trucks and buses has ended, showing a rapid decline. In 2015, a total of 308000 cars were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 16.97%, an increase of 4.36 percentage points over the previous year. Among the car sub varieties, the varieties with 2 liters and above showed rapid growth, with a total export of 21600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.21%; The varieties of 1.5 liters and below still showed a decline, with a total of 169800 vehicles exported. The electrical components and parts adopted year-on-year fully ensured the reliability, stability and durability of the system, with a decrease of 27.42%, an increase of 5.02 percentage points over the previous year. The export of trucks was 218800, a year-on-year decrease of 26.18%. Among the sub varieties of trucks, the series of diesel vehicles with a load capacity of 14 tons < 20 tons showed a rapid growth, and a total of 13100 vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 63.95%; Gasoline and diesel vehicles with less than 5 tons decreased significantly over the previous year, exporting 68200 and

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